Bhanu Vadlakonda

Decision Fatigue and Decision Making Wisdom

A synthesis of decision fatigue and decision-making wisdom from various sources.

Overview

Decision fatigue is the deteriorating quality of decisions made after a long session of decision making. The more choices we make throughout the day, the harder each subsequent choice becomes. These highlights explore frameworks, mental models, and principles that help navigate decisions more effectively.

Key Insights

1. Delay Decisions Until Necessary

"Don't make a decision until you need to. That might sound obvious, but so many companies leap to promising dramatic growth and then trap themselves under the weight of the expectations they've created." — Ron Shaich, Know What Matters

Example: A startup founder is approached by investors offering funding at a high valuation. Instead of immediately accepting to "lock in" the deal, they wait. Two months later, they have more traction data, better leverage, and can negotiate terms that don't trap them into unrealistic growth expectations. The delay preserved optionality.

2. Accept Finite Capacity

"We can do anything; we just can't do everything... if you're going to do things well, you need to do less. You need to pick the things that matter and let go of the things that don't." — Ron Shaich, Know What Matters

Example: A product manager has 15 feature requests from customers. Instead of building watered-down versions of all 15, they ruthlessly prioritize 3 that align with their core value proposition. The result: three exceptional features that drive retention, rather than fifteen mediocre ones that confuse users.

3. Use Decision Filters

Panera's Four Prioritized Filters:

  1. How will this decision affect the experience of our guests?
  2. How will this decision fit with or enhance our brand personality and authority?
  3. How will this decision impact our operators?
  4. How much will this decision cost?

Example: A restaurant chain considers adding a trendy new menu item. Running it through the filters: (1) Guests would enjoy it, (2) But it doesn't fit their "fresh and healthy" brand, (3) It requires new equipment operators aren't trained on, (4) High ingredient costs. The filters make the "no" decision obvious and defensible.

4. Beware of "Feeling Smart"

"A subtle reason why smart people make blunders when making career decisions and investment decisions is that they want to feel smart while making the decision and explaining it to others. The seductive appeal of feeling smart trounces the rational goal of making the correct decision." — 10 Ideas for Clarity - Shreyas Doshi

Example: An investor passes on a "boring" index fund and instead constructs an elaborate thesis around an obscure semiconductor company. At dinner parties, they sound brilliant explaining their investment. Five years later, the index fund has outperformed. They optimized for intellectual performance, not returns.

5. Logic Requires Artful Application

"Actually using logic for important decisions is more art than science, not because logic is art (it is not) but because the user has profound flaws and overcoming those flaws is pure art." — 10 Ideas for Clarity - Shreyas Doshi

Example: A hiring manager has a "logical" rubric for evaluating candidates. Candidate A scores higher on paper. But the manager notices they felt defensive during the interview with Candidate A and energized with Candidate B. Recognizing their own biases (the rubric was designed when they were in a different mindset), they dig deeper rather than blindly following the score.

6. Decisions Have Real Weight

"What you really sign up for is a life where every decision feels like it costs something real. You will spend years being misunderstood." — Founder Chaos

Example: A founder must choose between two candidates for a critical engineering role. One is a friend who needs the job. The other is clearly more qualified. There's no "right" answer that doesn't cost something—a friendship strained or a team weakened. Leadership means bearing that weight, not pretending it doesn't exist.

7. Decide Despite Discomfort

"The hardest part is sticking around after every plan gets blown up and you have to rebuild with less optimism and more scar tissue. What makes it work isn't relentless hustle or some mythical trait. It's learning to make peace with constant discomfort, and then making decisions anyway." — Founder Chaos

Example: A team's product launch fails. Metrics are bad. The team is demoralized. The leader doesn't have a clear answer on what to do next. But they make a decision anyway—pivot to a specific customer segment—knowing it might be wrong. The alternative (paralysis while waiting for certainty) is worse.

8. Making Decisions With Incomplete Information

"That means making decisions with half the data. Keeping morale up when yours is gone. Holding the line when everything feels shaky." — First Time Founder

Example: A product team needs to decide on their pricing model before launch. They have some customer research but not enough. They could delay launch for more data, but the market window is closing. They choose a price, document their assumptions, and commit to revisiting in 90 days. Progress beats perfection.

9. Overwhelm Is the Enemy

"Good PMs work hard, are always extremely busy, and are often overwhelmed. Great PMs work hard but are rarely overwhelmed. Great PMs understand task leverage and spend the majority of their time on the highest-leverage tasks for the company." — Good Product Managers, Great Product Managers

Example: Two PMs have the same workload. PM A responds to every Slack message immediately, attends every meeting, and reviews every document. PM B batches communications, declines low-value meetings, and delegates document reviews. PM A is exhausted and reactive. PM B ships twice as much and has energy for strategic thinking.

10. Emotion Drives Decisions

"Good PMs make product decisions based on a thoroughly logical and rational view of the world. Great PMs view logic and reason as important tools, but they also know that people—and therefore the users and customers of their product—are driven by emotion more than by logic." — Good Product Managers, Great Product Managers

Example: A fintech app's data shows users want more features. But user interviews reveal they feel anxious about their finances. The great PM ignores the feature requests and instead redesigns the dashboard to feel calmer and more encouraging. Engagement increases 40%. The emotional need was the real need.

11. The Founder Test Is Emotional

"The Founder Litmus Test Is Emotional, Not Analytical. Deciding whether to found isn't a spreadsheet exercise. It's about whether you have the emotional resilience and conviction to handle the chaos, uncertainty, and repetitive ego bruising that comes with founding." — PM Career Framework for AI

Example: Two people consider starting a company. Person A has the better idea and more relevant experience. Person B has a decent idea but has spent years in high-uncertainty environments and actually enjoys the chaos. Person B is more likely to succeed as a founder. The spreadsheet would pick Person A.

12. Match Constraints to Opportunities

"Your actual career decision should combine your real constraints (compensation needs, location, life stage, pace tolerance) with which 'door' fits those constraints. It's not about what's hottest; it's about what fits you." — PM Career Framework for AI

Example: A PM is offered roles at a hot AI startup (high risk, high upside, 70-hour weeks) and an established company (stable, good pay, 45-hour weeks). They have a newborn at home. Despite the startup being "the right career move" according to Twitter, they choose stability. Five years later, they're a VP at the established company and present for their kid's childhood.

Synthesized Themes

  1. Timing > Speed — Delay decisions to preserve optionality; rushing creates traps
  2. Less > More — Doing fewer things well beats doing many things poorly
  3. Filters > Feelings — Structured frameworks make decisions defensible and consistent
  4. Correct > Clever — Optimize for outcomes, not for sounding smart
  5. Action > Certainty — Decide with incomplete information rather than wait for perfect data
  6. Leverage > Effort — Focus energy on high-impact decisions; delegate or ignore the rest
  7. Emotion > Logic — Understand that you and others are driven by feeling, not reason
  8. Fit > Fashion — Choose what matches your constraints, not what's trendy

Sources